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Jefferson, AL · ZIP 35216 · Census Tract 01073012908 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$261K
Downside (P10)
$210K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$269K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$355K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $158K | $166K | $175K | $178K | $172K | $173K | $163K | $199K | $257K | $258K | $261K | $267K | $270K | $269K | $266K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$103,188 | -$95,188 | -$86,288 | -$83,688 | -$89,388 | -$88,688 | -$98,888 | -$62,988 | -$4,688 | -$3,888 | +$5,658 | +$8,821 | +$7,686 | +$4,534 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.5% | -36.4% | -33.0% | -32.0% | -34.2% | -33.9% | -37.8% | -24.1% | -1.8% | -1.5% | +2.2% | +3.4% | +2.9% | +1.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $224K | $222K | $210K | $238K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $314K | $341K | $355K | $304K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$224K to $314K
33.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$238K to $304K
24.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoover | $261K | $269K | +3.2% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 010803) | $275K | $310K | +12.9% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 012306) | $252K | $281K | +11.4% | |
| Gardendale (Tract 011710) | $265K | $288K | +8.7% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 012907) | $265K | $279K | +5.0% | |
| Gardendale (Tract 011708) | $255K | $263K | +3.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoover | $261K | $269K | +3.2% | |
| Center Point | $133K | $160K | +20.4% | |
| Leeds | $125K | $150K | +20.0% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 012004) | $191K | $227K | +19.1% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 011210) | $181K | $214K | +18.3% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 002401) | $358K | $419K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoover | $261K | $269K | $145K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 000700) | $60K | $62K | $37K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 001902) | $78K | $83K | $37K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 003500) | $77K | $80K | $35K | |
| Bessemer | $87K | $92K | $35K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 003300) | $52K | $55K | $32K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Jefferson, AL · ZIP 35216 · Census Tract 01073012908 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$261K
Downside (P10)
$210K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$269K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$355K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $158K | $166K | $175K | $178K | $172K | $173K | $163K | $199K | $257K | $258K | $261K | $267K | $270K | $269K | $266K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$103,188 | -$95,188 | -$86,288 | -$83,688 | -$89,388 | -$88,688 | -$98,888 | -$62,988 | -$4,688 | -$3,888 | +$5,658 | +$8,821 | +$7,686 | +$4,534 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.5% | -36.4% | -33.0% | -32.0% | -34.2% | -33.9% | -37.8% | -24.1% | -1.8% | -1.5% | +2.2% | +3.4% | +2.9% | +1.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $224K | $222K | $210K | $238K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $314K | $341K | $355K | $304K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$224K to $314K
33.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$238K to $304K
24.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoover | $261K | $269K | +3.2% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 010803) | $275K | $310K | +12.9% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 012306) | $252K | $281K | +11.4% | |
| Gardendale (Tract 011710) | $265K | $288K | +8.7% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 012907) | $265K | $279K | +5.0% | |
| Gardendale (Tract 011708) | $255K | $263K | +3.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoover | $261K | $269K | +3.2% | |
| Center Point | $133K | $160K | +20.4% | |
| Leeds | $125K | $150K | +20.0% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 012004) | $191K | $227K | +19.1% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 011210) | $181K | $214K | +18.3% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 002401) | $358K | $419K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoover | $261K | $269K | $145K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 000700) | $60K | $62K | $37K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 001902) | $78K | $83K | $37K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 003500) | $77K | $80K | $35K | |
| Bessemer | $87K | $92K | $35K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 003300) | $52K | $55K | $32K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
