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Jefferson, AL · ZIP 35223 · Census Tract 01073010804 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$771K
Downside (P10)
$618K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$801K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.13M
+47% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $485K | $538K | $570K | $572K | $584K | $610K | $634K | $686K | $729K | $737K | $771K | $809K | $818K | $801K | $774K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$286,379 | -$233,479 | -$201,279 | -$199,079 | -$187,779 | -$161,779 | -$137,679 | -$85,579 | -$42,179 | -$34,379 | +$37,980 | +$46,424 | +$29,129 | +$2,489 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -37.1% | -30.3% | -26.1% | -25.8% | -24.3% | -21.0% | -17.8% | -11.1% | -5.5% | -4.5% | +4.9% | +6.0% | +3.8% | +0.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $674K | $638K | $618K | $695K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $992K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $871K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$674K to $992K
39.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$695K to $871K
22.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain Brook | $758K | $801K | +5.5% | |
| Homewood | $796K | $884K | +11.0% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 012911) | $792K | $862K | +8.8% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 004800) | $892K | $961K | +7.8% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 012905) | $755K | $790K | +4.7% | |
| Leeds | $681K | $688K | +1.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain Brook | $758K | $801K | +5.5% | |
| Center Point | $133K | $160K | +20.4% | |
| Leeds | $125K | $150K | +20.0% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 012004) | $191K | $227K | +19.1% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 011210) | $181K | $214K | +18.3% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 002401) | $358K | $419K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain Brook | $758K | $801K | $513K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 000700) | $60K | $62K | $37K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 001902) | $78K | $83K | $37K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 003500) | $77K | $80K | $35K | |
| Bessemer | $87K | $92K | $35K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 003300) | $52K | $55K | $32K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Jefferson, AL · ZIP 35223 · Census Tract 01073010804 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$771K
Downside (P10)
$618K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$801K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.13M
+47% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $485K | $538K | $570K | $572K | $584K | $610K | $634K | $686K | $729K | $737K | $771K | $809K | $818K | $801K | $774K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$286,379 | -$233,479 | -$201,279 | -$199,079 | -$187,779 | -$161,779 | -$137,679 | -$85,579 | -$42,179 | -$34,379 | +$37,980 | +$46,424 | +$29,129 | +$2,489 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -37.1% | -30.3% | -26.1% | -25.8% | -24.3% | -21.0% | -17.8% | -11.1% | -5.5% | -4.5% | +4.9% | +6.0% | +3.8% | +0.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $674K | $638K | $618K | $695K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $992K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $871K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$674K to $992K
39.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$695K to $871K
22.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain Brook | $758K | $801K | +5.5% | |
| Homewood | $796K | $884K | +11.0% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 012911) | $792K | $862K | +8.8% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 004800) | $892K | $961K | +7.8% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 012905) | $755K | $790K | +4.7% | |
| Leeds | $681K | $688K | +1.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain Brook | $758K | $801K | +5.5% | |
| Center Point | $133K | $160K | +20.4% | |
| Leeds | $125K | $150K | +20.0% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 012004) | $191K | $227K | +19.1% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 011210) | $181K | $214K | +18.3% | |
| Birmingham (Tract 002401) | $358K | $419K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain Brook | $758K | $801K | $513K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 000700) | $60K | $62K | $37K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 001902) | $78K | $83K | $37K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 003500) | $77K | $80K | $35K | |
| Bessemer | $87K | $92K | $35K | |
| Birmingham (Tract 003300) | $52K | $55K | $32K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
