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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Skagway, AK · Census Tract 02230760008 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.27M
Downside (P10)
$625K
-51% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.10M
-14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.69M
+33% by 2030
Base case: -14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -51% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 47% confidence.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| YoY Change | -2.4% | -9.7% | -2.8% | +0.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $775K | $717K | $656K | $625K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.7M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. This typically reflects limited transaction history, high price variance, or rapid neighborhood change.
1-Year Spread
$775K to $1.65M
70.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$625K to $1.69M
97.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760008 | $1.27M | $1.10M | -13.8% | |
| Skagway (Tract 480003) | $995K | $885K | -11.0% | |
| Skagway (Tract 240007) | $1.21M | $1.04M | -14.2% | |
| Skagway (Tract 800007) | $1.04M | $890K | -14.6% | |
| Skagway (Tract 840009) | $1.16M | $972K | -16.0% | |
| Skagway (Tract 920000) | $1.53M | $1.10M | -28.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760008 | $1.27M | $1.10M | -13.8% | |
| Skagway (Tract 000000) | $119K | $203K | +70.1% | |
| Skagway (Tract 480003) | $995K | $885K | -11.0% | |
| Skagway (Tract 240007) | $1.21M | $1.04M | -14.2% | |
| Skagway (Tract 800007) | $1.04M | $890K | -14.6% | |
| Skagway (Tract 840009) | $1.16M | $972K | -16.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760008 | $1.27M | $1.10M | $1.07M | |
| Skagway (Tract 920000) | $1.53M | $1.10M | $1.08M | |
| Skagway (Tract 840009) | $1.16M | $972K | $1.07M | |
| Skagway (Tract 480003) | $995K | $885K | $1.01M | |
| Skagway (Tract 800007) | $1.04M | $890K | $992K | |
| Skagway (Tract 000000) | $119K | $203K | $221K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources