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Matanuska-Susitna, AK · ZIP 99654 · Census Tract 02170001004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$381K
Downside (P10)
$257K
-33% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$402K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$547K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -33% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 60% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $260K | $265K | $275K | $286K | $298K | $322K | $314K | $354K | $370K | $377K | $381K | $385K | $396K | $402K | $393K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$120,891 | -$115,891 | -$106,591 | -$94,891 | -$82,791 | -$59,291 | -$67,491 | -$26,791 | -$10,991 | -$4,591 | +$4,266 | +$15,330 | +$21,314 | +$11,648 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -31.7% | -30.4% | -28.0% | -24.9% | -21.7% | -15.6% | -17.7% | -7.0% | -2.9% | -1.2% | +1.1% | +4.0% | +5.6% | +3.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $289K | $272K | $257K | $351K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $482K | $509K | $547K | $438K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$289K to $482K
49.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$351K to $438K
22.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lakes | $380K | $402K | +5.8% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000706) | $355K | $400K | +12.8% | |
| Wasilla | $396K | $442K | +11.5% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000601) | $387K | $419K | +8.1% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 001001) | $381K | $395K | +3.6% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 001300) | $354K | $363K | +2.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lakes | $380K | $402K | +5.8% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000202) | $141K | $190K | +34.9% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000101) | $211K | $243K | +15.4% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 001100) | $436K | $497K | +14.0% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 001201) | $329K | $372K | +13.2% | |
| Houston | $298K | $336K | +13.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lakes | $380K | $402K | $290K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000202) | $141K | $190K | $155K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000501) | $290K | $322K | $153K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000102) | $273K | $304K | $143K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000200) | $245K | $253K | $139K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000101) | $211K | $243K | $113K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Matanuska-Susitna, AK · ZIP 99654 · Census Tract 02170001004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$381K
Downside (P10)
$257K
-33% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$402K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$547K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -33% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 60% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $260K | $265K | $275K | $286K | $298K | $322K | $314K | $354K | $370K | $377K | $381K | $385K | $396K | $402K | $393K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$120,891 | -$115,891 | -$106,591 | -$94,891 | -$82,791 | -$59,291 | -$67,491 | -$26,791 | -$10,991 | -$4,591 | +$4,266 | +$15,330 | +$21,314 | +$11,648 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -31.7% | -30.4% | -28.0% | -24.9% | -21.7% | -15.6% | -17.7% | -7.0% | -2.9% | -1.2% | +1.1% | +4.0% | +5.6% | +3.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $289K | $272K | $257K | $351K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $482K | $509K | $547K | $438K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$289K to $482K
49.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$351K to $438K
22.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lakes | $380K | $402K | +5.8% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000706) | $355K | $400K | +12.8% | |
| Wasilla | $396K | $442K | +11.5% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000601) | $387K | $419K | +8.1% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 001001) | $381K | $395K | +3.6% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 001300) | $354K | $363K | +2.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lakes | $380K | $402K | +5.8% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000202) | $141K | $190K | +34.9% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000101) | $211K | $243K | +15.4% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 001100) | $436K | $497K | +14.0% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 001201) | $329K | $372K | +13.2% | |
| Houston | $298K | $336K | +13.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lakes | $380K | $402K | $290K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000202) | $141K | $190K | $155K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000501) | $290K | $322K | $153K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000102) | $273K | $304K | $143K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000200) | $245K | $253K | $139K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000101) | $211K | $243K | $113K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
