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Matanuska-Susitna, AK · ZIP 99654 · Census Tract 02170001003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$321K
Downside (P10)
$266K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$332K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$450K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $197K | $215K | $228K | $247K | $252K | $256K | $248K | $279K | $304K | $314K | $321K | $323K | $324K | $332K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$123,915 | -$105,915 | -$92,915 | -$74,415 | -$69,315 | -$65,015 | -$73,415 | -$41,915 | -$17,315 | -$7,215 | +$1,730 | +$2,432 | +$11,212 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -38.6% | -33.0% | -28.9% | -23.2% | -21.6% | -20.2% | -22.9% | -13.1% | -5.4% | -2.2% | +0.5% | +0.8% | +3.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $282K | $278K | $266K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $386K | $432K | $450K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$282K to $386K
32.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$266K to $450K
55.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Lakes | $319K | $332K | +4.3% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 001201) | $329K | $372K | +13.2% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000705) | $331K | $367K | +11.1% | |
| Knik-Fairview | $321K | $343K | +7.0% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000502) | $327K | $350K | +6.8% | |
| Willow | $320K | $311K | -2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Lakes | $319K | $332K | +4.3% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000202) | $141K | $190K | +34.9% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000101) | $211K | $243K | +15.4% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 001100) | $436K | $497K | +14.0% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 001201) | $329K | $372K | +13.2% | |
| Houston | $298K | $336K | +13.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Lakes | $319K | $332K | $184K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000202) | $141K | $190K | $155K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000501) | $290K | $322K | $153K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000102) | $273K | $304K | $143K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000200) | $245K | $253K | $139K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000101) | $211K | $243K | $113K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Matanuska-Susitna, AK · ZIP 99654 · Census Tract 02170001003 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$321K
Downside (P10)
$266K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$332K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$450K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $197K | $215K | $228K | $247K | $252K | $256K | $248K | $279K | $304K | $314K | $321K | $323K | $324K | $332K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$123,915 | -$105,915 | -$92,915 | -$74,415 | -$69,315 | -$65,015 | -$73,415 | -$41,915 | -$17,315 | -$7,215 | +$1,730 | +$2,432 | +$11,212 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -38.6% | -33.0% | -28.9% | -23.2% | -21.6% | -20.2% | -22.9% | -13.1% | -5.4% | -2.2% | +0.5% | +0.8% | +3.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $282K | $278K | $266K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $386K | $432K | $450K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$282K to $386K
32.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$266K to $450K
55.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Lakes | $319K | $332K | +4.3% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 001201) | $329K | $372K | +13.2% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000705) | $331K | $367K | +11.1% | |
| Knik-Fairview | $321K | $343K | +7.0% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000502) | $327K | $350K | +6.8% | |
| Willow | $320K | $311K | -2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Lakes | $319K | $332K | +4.3% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000202) | $141K | $190K | +34.9% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000101) | $211K | $243K | +15.4% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 001100) | $436K | $497K | +14.0% | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 001201) | $329K | $372K | +13.2% | |
| Houston | $298K | $336K | +13.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Lakes | $319K | $332K | $184K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000202) | $141K | $190K | $155K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000501) | $290K | $322K | $153K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000102) | $273K | $304K | $143K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000200) | $245K | $253K | $139K | |
| Matanuska-Susitna (Tract 000101) | $211K | $243K | $113K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
