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Kenai Peninsula, AK · ZIP 99603 · Census Tract 02122001200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$227K
Downside (P10)
$192K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$252K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$350K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $170K | $168K | $183K | $185K | $212K | $202K | $193K | $218K | $164K | $222K | $227K | $231K | $241K | $252K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$57,402 | -$59,002 | -$44,702 | -$42,102 | -$15,502 | -$25,902 | -$34,902 | -$9,702 | -$63,102 | -$5,302 | +$3,423 | +$13,586 | +$24,933 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -25.2% | -25.9% | -19.7% | -18.5% | -6.8% | -11.4% | -15.3% | -4.3% | -27.7% | -2.3% | +1.5% | +6.0% | +11.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $203K | $198K | $192K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $280K | $312K | $350K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$203K to $280K
33.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$192K to $350K
62.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenai-Cook Inlet | $226K | $252K | +11.7% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000600) | $283K | $320K | +12.9% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000800) | $253K | $272K | +7.4% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000500) | $316K | $332K | +5.0% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000200) | $316K | $328K | +3.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenai-Cook Inlet | $226K | $252K | +11.7% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000900) | $404K | $459K | +13.5% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000600) | $283K | $320K | +12.9% | |
| Seward-Hope | $387K | $428K | +10.7% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 001000) | $381K | $420K | +10.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenai-Cook Inlet | $226K | $252K | $158K | |
| Seward-Hope | $389K | $387K | $191K | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000400) | $339K | $347K | $172K | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000800) | $253K | $272K | $164K | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000500) | $316K | $332K | $162K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Kenai Peninsula, AK · ZIP 99603 · Census Tract 02122001200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$227K
Downside (P10)
$192K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$252K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$350K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $170K | $168K | $183K | $185K | $212K | $202K | $193K | $218K | $164K | $222K | $227K | $231K | $241K | $252K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$57,402 | -$59,002 | -$44,702 | -$42,102 | -$15,502 | -$25,902 | -$34,902 | -$9,702 | -$63,102 | -$5,302 | +$3,423 | +$13,586 | +$24,933 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -25.2% | -25.9% | -19.7% | -18.5% | -6.8% | -11.4% | -15.3% | -4.3% | -27.7% | -2.3% | +1.5% | +6.0% | +11.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $203K | $198K | $192K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $280K | $312K | $350K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$203K to $280K
33.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$192K to $350K
62.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenai-Cook Inlet | $226K | $252K | +11.7% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000600) | $283K | $320K | +12.9% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000800) | $253K | $272K | +7.4% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000500) | $316K | $332K | +5.0% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000200) | $316K | $328K | +3.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenai-Cook Inlet | $226K | $252K | +11.7% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000900) | $404K | $459K | +13.5% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000600) | $283K | $320K | +12.9% | |
| Seward-Hope | $387K | $428K | +10.7% | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 001000) | $381K | $420K | +10.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenai-Cook Inlet | $226K | $252K | $158K | |
| Seward-Hope | $389K | $387K | $191K | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000400) | $339K | $347K | $172K | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000800) | $253K | $272K | $164K | |
| Kenai-Cook Inlet (Tract 000500) | $316K | $332K | $162K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
