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Fairbanks North Star, AK · ZIP 99709 · Census Tract 02090001901 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$287K
Downside (P10)
$233K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$302K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$383K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $242K | $246K | $268K | $260K | $278K | $287K | $292K | $298K | $302K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$44,987 | -$41,087 | -$18,787 | -$27,487 | -$9,587 | +$4,525 | +$11,170 | +$15,183 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -15.7% | -14.3% | -6.5% | -9.6% | -3.3% | +1.6% | +3.9% | +5.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $246K | $239K | $233K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $366K | $361K | $383K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$246K to $366K
41.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$233K to $383K
49.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks North Star | $281K | $302K | +7.7% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001000) | $277K | $321K | +16.1% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001700) | $297K | $328K | +10.6% | |
| Fairbanks | $293K | $323K | +10.2% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001402) | $287K | $309K | +7.5% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001902) | $279K | $299K | +7.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks North Star | $281K | $302K | +7.7% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001000) | $277K | $321K | +16.1% | |
| Fairbanks | $245K | $282K | +14.9% | |
| Badger | $316K | $356K | +12.8% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001200) | $325K | $364K | +12.0% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 000600) | $240K | $267K | +11.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks North Star | $281K | $302K | $150K | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 000600) | $240K | $267K | $155K | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001700) | $297K | $328K | $154K | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000400) | $293K | $323K | $147K | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000300) | $183K | $197K | $118K | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000100) | $184K | $190K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Fairbanks North Star, AK · ZIP 99709 · Census Tract 02090001901 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$287K
Downside (P10)
$233K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$302K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$383K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $242K | $246K | $268K | $260K | $278K | $287K | $292K | $298K | $302K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$44,987 | -$41,087 | -$18,787 | -$27,487 | -$9,587 | +$4,525 | +$11,170 | +$15,183 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -15.7% | -14.3% | -6.5% | -9.6% | -3.3% | +1.6% | +3.9% | +5.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $246K | $239K | $233K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $366K | $361K | $383K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$246K to $366K
41.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$233K to $383K
49.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks North Star | $281K | $302K | +7.7% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001000) | $277K | $321K | +16.1% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001700) | $297K | $328K | +10.6% | |
| Fairbanks | $293K | $323K | +10.2% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001402) | $287K | $309K | +7.5% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001902) | $279K | $299K | +7.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks North Star | $281K | $302K | +7.7% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001000) | $277K | $321K | +16.1% | |
| Fairbanks | $245K | $282K | +14.9% | |
| Badger | $316K | $356K | +12.8% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001200) | $325K | $364K | +12.0% | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 000600) | $240K | $267K | +11.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairbanks North Star | $281K | $302K | $150K | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 000600) | $240K | $267K | $155K | |
| Fairbanks North Star (Tract 001700) | $297K | $328K | $154K | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000400) | $293K | $323K | $147K | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000300) | $183K | $197K | $118K | |
| Fairbanks (Tract 000100) | $184K | $190K | $96K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
