County 54490, WV · Census Tract 54490010504 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$4.85M
Downside (P10)
$2.86M
-41% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$3.76M
-23% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$4.63M
-5% by 2030
Base case: -23% by 2030, with a forecast range from -41% to -5%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 54490 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $4.9M | $4.7M | $4.1M | $3.8M | $3.8M |
| YoY Change | -4.1% | -12.4% | -7.6% | -0.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $3.7M | $3.1M | $2.9M | $2.9M | |
| Upside (P90) | $5.2M | $4.7M | $4.5M | $4.6M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$4.42M to $5.27M
17.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$2.86M to $4.63M
47.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 010229 | $4.92M | $3.72M | -24.5% |
| Tract 010481 | $4.97M | $4.07M | -18.1% |
| Tract 010384 | $4.58M | $3.83M | -16.5% |
| Tract 010423 | $5.16M | $3.93M | -23.9% |
| Tract 010368 | $5.31M | $4.42M | -16.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000022 | $354K | $611K | +72.6% |
| Tract 000242 | $363K | $624K | +72.2% |
| Tract 000161 | $359K | $611K | +70.2% |
| Tract 000284 | $358K | $591K | +65.1% |
| Tract 000103 | $356K | $571K | +60.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000145 | $364K | $566K | $453K |
| Tract 000103 | $356K | $571K | $482K |
| Tract 000022 | $354K | $611K | $523K |
| Tract 000161 | $359K | $611K | $526K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources