What is the home price forecast for Tract 106821?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 106821 median home values at $2,321,995 currently, with a 5-year expected change of -1.5%.

How confident is the Tract 106821 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $1,968,777 (downside) to $2,786,911 (upside), with a spread of 36% of median.

Tract 106821 Home Price Forecast

County 53570, WA · Census Tract 53570106821 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$2.32M

Downside (P10)

$1.97M

-15% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$2.29M

-2% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$2.79M

+20% by 2030

Base case: -2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +20%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 53570 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$2.3M	$2.6M	$2.4M	$2.3M	$2.3M
YoY Change		+10.1%	-6.4%	-3.8%	-0.7%
Downside (P10)		$2.3M	$2.1M	$2.0M	$2.0M
Upside (P90)		$2.9M	$2.8M	$2.8M	$2.8M

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$2.17M to $2.49M

14.0% of median

5-Year Spread

$1.97M to $2.79M

35.8% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: roughly flat5yr expected: -1.5% · Spread: 36%

·The forecast implies relatively stable values through the full horizon, with modest movements in either direction.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 103785	$2.34M	$2.28M	-2.5%
Tract 106928	$2.29M	$2.32M	+1.1%
Tract 107163	$2.36M	$2.14M	-9.5%
Tract 103688	$2.28M	$2.24M	-1.6%
Tract 103303	$2.24M	$2.20M	-1.9%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 003568	$339K	$501K	+47.6%
Tract 002226	$334K	$474K	+41.7%
Tract 001065	$336K	$475K	+41.4%
Tract 000383	$343K	$483K	+40.7%
Tract 003869	$336K	$470K	+40.1%

Location

Tract 106821 on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).