County 53290, WA · Census Tract 53290005781 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$535K
Downside (P10)
$263K
-51% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$508K
-5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$875K
+63% by 2030
Base case: -5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -51% to +63%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 53290 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $535K | $535K | $512K | $495K | $508K |
| YoY Change | -0.2% | -4.2% | -3.4% | +2.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $319K | $300K | $255K | $263K | |
| Upside (P90) | $737K | $768K | $807K | $875K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$410K to $683K
51.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$263K to $875K
120.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 009046 | $535K | $549K | +2.6% |
| Tract 000401 | $538K | $526K | -2.3% |
| Tract 008526 | $539K | $587K | +8.9% |
| Tract 000906 | $540K | $524K | -2.9% |
| Tract 000029 | $531K | $569K | +7.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000087 | $377K | $517K | +37.3% |
| Tract 008584 | $425K | $520K | +22.5% |
| Tract 000485 | $417K | $485K | +16.2% |
| Tract 009224 | $380K | $440K | +15.9% |
| Tract 008102 | $415K | $479K | +15.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 005846 | $375K | $409K | $434K |
| Tract 009224 | $380K | $440K | $443K |
| Tract 008982 | $383K | $412K | $448K |
| Tract 001222 | $394K | $445K | $458K |
| Tract 008827 | $408K | $404K | $460K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources