County 53200, WA · Census Tract 53200001063 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.17M
Downside (P10)
$488K
-58% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$941K
-19% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.64M
+40% by 2030
Base case: -19% by 2030, with a forecast range from -58% to +40%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 53200 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.0M | $947K | $941K |
| YoY Change | +2.5% | -12.7% | -9.2% | -0.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $708K | $566K | $485K | $488K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$841K to $1.50M
56.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$488K to $1.64M
122.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000242 | $1.17M | $924K | -21.0% |
| Tract 000983 | $1.14M | $1.01M | -11.5% |
| Tract 000747 | $1.13M | $1.05M | -7.4% |
| Tract 000381 | $1.13M | $972K | -13.6% |
| Tract 000488 | $1.12M | $1.01M | -9.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000682 | $1.01M | $954K | -5.8% |
| Tract 000404 | $1.11M | $1.04M | -6.7% |
| Tract 000705 | $1.00M | $936K | -6.8% |
| Tract 000747 | $1.13M | $1.05M | -7.4% |
| Tract 000488 | $1.12M | $1.01M | -9.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000682 | $1.01M | $954K | $957K |
| Tract 000488 | $1.12M | $1.01M | $959K |
| Tract 000103 | $978K | $860K | $967K |
| Tract 000022 | $994K | $843K | $1.00M |
| Tract 000268 | $1.00M | $899K | $1.01M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources