County 53200, WA · Census Tract 53200000789 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.03M
Downside (P10)
$415K
-60% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$867K
-16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.72M
+67% by 2030
Base case: -16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -60% to +67%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 53200 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.0M | $1.0M | $929K | $869K | $867K |
| YoY Change | -0.3% | -9.4% | -6.5% | -0.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $576K | $509K | $414K | $415K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.7M |
The forecast range is very wide. The gap between upside and downside scenarios is unusually large — treat any single-point estimate with caution. This often reflects sparse local data or significant market volatility.
1-Year Spread
$692K to $1.34M
63.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$415K to $1.72M
150.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000844 | $1.02M | $879K | -14.0% |
| Tract 000200 | $1.04M | $906K | -12.9% |
| Tract 000682 | $1.01M | $954K | -5.8% |
| Tract 000284 | $1.05M | $906K | -13.8% |
| Tract 000705 | $1.00M | $936K | -6.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000682 | $1.01M | $954K | -5.8% |
| Tract 000404 | $1.11M | $1.04M | -6.7% |
| Tract 000705 | $1.00M | $936K | -6.8% |
| Tract 000747 | $1.13M | $1.05M | -7.4% |
| Tract 000488 | $1.12M | $1.01M | -9.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000682 | $1.01M | $954K | $957K |
| Tract 000488 | $1.12M | $1.01M | $959K |
| Tract 000103 | $978K | $860K | $967K |
| Tract 000022 | $994K | $843K | $1.00M |
| Tract 000268 | $1.00M | $899K | $1.01M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources