What is the home price forecast for Tract 009564?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 009564 median home values at $1,210,326 currently, with a 5-year expected change of -3.8%.

How confident is the Tract 009564 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $942,576 (downside) to $1,462,613 (upside), with a spread of 45% of median.

Tract 009564 Home Price Forecast

County 50940, VT · Census Tract 50940009564 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$1.21M

Downside (P10)

$943K

-22% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$1.16M

-4% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$1.46M

+21% by 2030

Base case: -4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +21%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 50940 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$1.2M	$1.3M	$1.2M	$1.1M	$1.2M
YoY Change		+6.5%	-8.0%	-6.0%	+4.5%
Downside (P10)		$1.1M	$1.0M	$910K	$943K
Upside (P90)		$1.5M	$1.4M	$1.4M	$1.5M

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$1.10M to $1.43M

27.3% of median

5-Year Spread

$943K to $1.46M

44.7% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: mild decline expected5yr expected: -3.8% · Spread: 45%

·The forecast implies relatively stable values through the full horizon, with modest movements in either direction.
·The model sees some downside pressure from rate sensitivity and local supply dynamics.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 010647	$1.21M	$1.16M	-4.1%
Tract 010045	$1.19M	$1.22M	+2.1%
Tract 010485	$1.18M	$1.21M	+2.7%
Tract 009506	$1.18M	$1.11M	-6.1%
Tract 009768	$1.24M	$1.18M	-4.8%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 004763	$315K	$534K	+69.7%
Tract 004585	$405K	$657K	+62.1%
Tract 004608	$295K	$469K	+59.1%
Tract 005461	$183K	$275K	+50.2%
Tract 005380	$232K	$346K	+49.1%

Location

Tract 009564 on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).