County 50940, VT · Census Tract 50940004501 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$2.43M
Downside (P10)
$1.09M
-55% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.61M
-34% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.97M
-19% by 2030
Base case: -34% by 2030, with a forecast range from -55% to -19%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 50940 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $2.4M | $2.4M | $2.1M | $1.7M | $1.6M |
| YoY Change | -3.1% | -13.0% | -15.5% | -7.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.7M | $1.4M | $1.2M | $1.1M | |
| Upside (P90) | $2.7M | $2.4M | $2.1M | $2.0M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$2.00M to $2.67M
27.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.09M to $1.97M
54.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 004022 | $2.51M | $1.36M | -45.7% |
| Tract 003269 | $2.53M | $2.32M | -8.1% |
| Tract 003968 | $2.33M | $2.10M | -9.6% |
| Tract 004187 | $1.97M | $2.52M | +28.2% |
| Tract 003081 | $1.94M | $1.50M | -22.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 004763 | $315K | $534K | +69.7% |
| Tract 004585 | $405K | $657K | +62.1% |
| Tract 004608 | $295K | $469K | +59.1% |
| Tract 005461 | $183K | $275K | +50.2% |
| Tract 005380 | $232K | $346K | +49.1% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources