County 50865, VT · Census Tract 50865004220 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$130K
Downside (P10)
$105K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$178K
+37% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$309K
+137% by 2030
Base case: +37% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +137%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 50865 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $130K | $157K | $154K | $156K | $178K |
| YoY Change | +20.9% | -2.2% | +1.5% | +14.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $117K | $104K | $100K | $105K | |
| Upside (P90) | $252K | $255K | $280K | $309K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$108K to $181K
56.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$105K to $309K
114.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 004246 | $132K | $210K | +58.7% |
| Tract 004149 | $125K | $206K | +64.7% |
| Tract 006749 | $124K | $178K | +43.6% |
| Tract 004628 | $137K | $218K | +59.6% |
| Tract 002808 | $137K | $211K | +54.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 004424 | $75K | $135K | +79.3% |
| Tract 005465 | $73K | $121K | +66.8% |
| Tract 002442 | $76K | $127K | +66.6% |
| Tract 001087 | $91K | $150K | +65.9% |
| Tract 002963 | $97K | $160K | +65.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000046 | $58K | $92K | $112K |
| Tract 000224 | $60K | $87K | $117K |
| Tract 001485 | $74K | $108K | $119K |
| Tract 000185 | $59K | $94K | $120K |
| Tract 004369 | $75K | $120K | $128K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources