County 51950, VA · Census Tract 51950001386 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$570K
Downside (P10)
$468K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$712K
+25% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.13M
+97% by 2030
Base case: +25% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +97%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 51950 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $570K | $657K | $651K | $656K | $712K |
| YoY Change | +15.2% | -1.0% | +0.8% | +8.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $494K | $455K | $451K | $468K | |
| Upside (P90) | $846K | $884K | $953K | $1.1M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$481K to $715K
41.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$468K to $1.13M
92.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001645 | $551K | $749K | +36.1% |
| Tract 002042 | $545K | $778K | +42.6% |
| Tract 001221 | $543K | $764K | +40.7% |
| Tract 001726 | $542K | $748K | +37.9% |
| Tract 001807 | $538K | $699K | +29.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000963 | $685K | $996K | +45.4% |
| Tract 001027 | $730K | $1.06M | +45.3% |
| Tract 000921 | $513K | $738K | +44.0% |
| Tract 000581 | $524K | $753K | +43.8% |
| Tract 000947 | $679K | $969K | +42.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000523 | $506K | $682K | $489K |
| Tract 002181 | $515K | $645K | $504K |
| Tract 001807 | $538K | $699K | $513K |
| Tract 001645 | $551K | $749K | $611K |
| Tract 001221 | $543K | $764K | $630K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources