County 51241, VA · Census Tract 51241480001 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$77K
Downside (P10)
$67K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$112K
+45% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$224K
+189% by 2030
Base case: +45% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +189%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 51241 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $77K | $96K | $94K | $104K | $112K |
| YoY Change | +24.3% | -2.7% | +10.8% | +8.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $66K | $60K | $63K | $67K | |
| Upside (P90) | $144K | $169K | $176K | $224K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$60K to $115K
70.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$67K to $224K
139.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280007 | $55K | $77K | +40.8% |
| Tract 520000 | $151K | $224K | +47.8% |
| Tract 320006 | $160K | $224K | +40.0% |
| Tract 360008 | $203K | $285K | +40.2% |
| Tract 440009 | $243K | $344K | +41.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 520000 | $151K | $224K | +47.8% |
| Tract 440009 | $243K | $344K | +41.7% |
| Tract 280007 | $55K | $77K | +40.8% |
| Tract 360008 | $203K | $285K | +40.2% |
| Tract 320006 | $160K | $224K | +40.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280007 | $55K | $77K | $106K |
| Tract 520000 | $151K | $224K | $207K |
| Tract 320006 | $160K | $224K | $217K |
| Tract 360008 | $203K | $285K | $253K |
| Tract 440009 | $243K | $344K | $253K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources