County 51441, VA · Census Tract 51441240009 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.29M
Downside (P10)
$559K
-57% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.09M
-16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.75M
+35% by 2030
Base case: -16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -57% to +35%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 51441 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| YoY Change | +3.3% | -11.3% | -7.3% | -1.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $775K | $668K | $546K | $559K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.8M | $1.8M | $1.7M | $1.7M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$961K to $1.63M
52.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$559K to $1.75M
109.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 800009 | $1.24M | $843K | -32.1% |
| Tract 280001 | $1.41M | $1.34M | -4.7% |
| Tract 200007 | $1.44M | $1.22M | -15.0% |
| Tract 160008 | $1.05M | $891K | -15.1% |
| Tract 000003 | $1.03M | $965K | -6.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280001 | $1.41M | $1.34M | -4.7% |
| Tract 560006 | $905K | $852K | -5.9% |
| Tract 000003 | $1.03M | $965K | -6.4% |
| Tract 200007 | $1.44M | $1.22M | -15.0% |
| Tract 160008 | $1.05M | $891K | -15.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 800009 | $1.24M | $843K | $1.03M |
| Tract 280001 | $1.41M | $1.34M | $1.08M |
| Tract 560006 | $905K | $852K | $1.09M |
| Tract 160008 | $1.05M | $891K | $1.10M |
| Tract 000003 | $1.03M | $965K | $1.16M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources