County 51170, VA · Census Tract 51170000947 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.25M
Downside (P10)
$1.08M
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.38M
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.84M
+46% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +46%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 51170 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.4M |
| YoY Change | +9.0% | -3.9% | -1.6% | +7.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.2M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.8M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.14M to $1.47M
26.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.08M to $1.84M
54.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001328 | $1.31M | $1.35M | +3.2% |
| Tract 001302 | $1.42M | $1.48M | +3.9% |
| Tract 001108 | $1.52M | $1.51M | -0.6% |
| Tract 001124 | $1.55M | $2.20M | +41.8% |
| Tract 001140 | $1.71M | $2.11M | +23.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001124 | $1.55M | $2.20M | +41.8% |
| Tract 001140 | $1.71M | $2.11M | +23.4% |
| Tract 001302 | $1.42M | $1.48M | +3.9% |
| Tract 001328 | $1.31M | $1.35M | +3.2% |
| Tract 001108 | $1.52M | $1.51M | -0.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001425 | $1.86M | $1.74M | $578K |
| Tract 001522 | $1.95M | $1.82M | $634K |
| Tract 001302 | $1.42M | $1.48M | $822K |
| Tract 001108 | $1.52M | $1.51M | $841K |
| Tract 001328 | $1.31M | $1.35M | $891K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources