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Denton, TX · ZIP 75022 · Census Tract 48121021752 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$602K
Downside (P10)
$527K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$618K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$794K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $297K | $318K | $329K | $351K | $369K | $385K | $411K | $479K | $533K | $590K | $602K | $621K | $609K | $618K | $618K |
| YoY Change | +6.9% | +3.6% | +6.6% | +5.2% | +4.1% | +6.8% | +16.6% | +11.3% | +10.7% | +2.1% | +3.1% | -1.9% | +1.5% | -0.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $532K | $536K | $527K | $551K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $685K | $729K | $794K | $681K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$532K to $685K
24.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$551K to $681K
21.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flower Mound | $595K | $618K | +3.9% | |
| Carrollton (Tract 021650) | $611K | $716K | +17.2% | |
| Flower Mound | $596K | $681K | +14.3% | |
| Carrollton (Tract 021651) | $614K | $666K | +8.5% | |
| Lewisville (Tract 021654) | $598K | $644K | +7.7% | |
| Lewisville (Tract 021653) | $616K | $661K | +7.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flower Mound | $595K | $618K | +3.9% | |
| Denton | $240K | $295K | +23.2% | |
| Justin-Roanoke | $464K | $564K | +21.6% | |
| The Colony | $734K | $876K | +19.3% | |
| Carrollton | $489K | $577K | +18.0% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey | $345K | $405K | +17.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flower Mound | $595K | $618K | $266K | |
| Denton (Tract 020605) | $240K | $295K | $138K | |
| Denton (Tract 020800) | $235K | $258K | $112K | |
| Denton (Tract 020603) | $220K | $234K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.