Austin, TX · ZIP 78641 · Census Tract 48453036000 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.04M
Downside (P10)
$904K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.19M
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.55M
+49% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +49%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Austin markets.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $699K | $667K | $792K | $860K | $979K | $1000K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.0M |
| YoY Change | -4.6% | +18.8% | +8.6% | +13.9% | +2.1% | +4.0% | +4.0% | +5.1% | +4.5% | -13.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $906K | $916K | $912K | $904K | $914K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$938K to $1.09M
15.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$904K to $1.55M
54.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentwood | $1.01M | $1.04M | +2.7% |
| Travis Heights | $1.07M | $1.25M | +16.6% |
| Bee Cave | $1.00M | $1.04M | +4.3% |
| Travis Heights | $986K | $1.07M | +8.4% |
| River Place | $1.10M | $1.17M | +6.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Austin | $410K | $501K | +22.2% |
| South Austin | $333K | $406K | +22.1% |
| Northeast Travis | $526K | $638K | +21.3% |
| Steiner Ranch | $894K | $1.08M | +20.4% |
| South Austin | $425K | $510K | +20.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Austin | $67K | $73K | $49K |
| Northeast Travis | $118K | $135K | $68K |
| Riverside | $170K | $179K | $106K |
| Northwest Travis | $160K | $170K | $116K |
| Northeast Travis | $239K | $256K | $121K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources