What is the home price forecast for El Paso Northwest?

Homecastr forecasts El Paso Northwest median home values at $123,625 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 8.3%.

How confident is the El Paso Northwest forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $103,833 (downside) to $176,480 (upside), with a spread of 54% of median.

El Paso Northwest Home Price Forecast

El Paso, TX · ZIP 79821 · Census Tract 48141010231 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$124K

Downside (P10)

$104K

-16% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$134K

+8% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$176K

+43% by 2030

Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +43%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar El Paso markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$78K	$85K	$107K	$114K	$119K	$122K	$124K	$124K	$126K	$134K
YoY Change		+9.9%	+25.1%	+6.7%	+4.6%	+2.5%	+1.1%	+0.4%	+1.8%	+6.0%
Downside (P10)							$111K	$110K	$107K	$104K
Upside (P90)							$136K	$148K	$159K	$176K

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$114K to $131K

13.9% of median

5-Year Spread

$104K to $176K

54.3% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +8.3% · Spread: 54%

·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
El Paso	$123K	$136K	+10.6%
El Paso	$123K	$140K	+13.9%
El Paso	$125K	$137K	+9.9%
El Paso	$122K	$135K	+10.2%
El Paso	$122K	$132K	+7.9%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
El Paso East	$241K	$286K	+18.6%
El Paso	$138K	$164K	+18.1%
El Paso	$212K	$250K	+18.0%
El Paso	$164K	$192K	+17.2%
El Paso	$113K	$131K	+16.2%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
El Paso	$79K	$84K	$38K
El Paso	$70K	$76K	$41K
El Paso East	$77K	$86K	$42K
El Paso East	$92K	$100K	$43K
El Paso East	$97K	$106K	$47K

Location

El Paso Northwest on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).