What is the home price forecast for Homestead Meadows South?

Homecastr forecasts Homestead Meadows South median home values at $190,550 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 5.2%.

How confident is the Homestead Meadows South forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $147,869 (downside) to $280,935 (upside), with a spread of 66% of median.

Homestead Meadows South Home Price Forecast

El Paso, TX · ZIP 79938 · Census Tract 48141010365 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$191K

Downside (P10)

$148K

-22% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$200K

+5% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$281K

+47% by 2030

Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +47%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar El Paso markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$77K	$95K	$162K	$159K	$191K	$193K	$191K	$190K	$196K	$200K
YoY Change		+24.0%	+70.3%	-2.0%	+20.7%	+0.9%	-1.4%	-0.4%	+3.4%	+2.2%
Downside (P10)							$167K	$160K	$161K	$148K
Upside (P90)							$218K	$228K	$253K	$281K

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$179K to $211K

16.6% of median

5-Year Spread

$148K to $281K

66.4% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +5.2% · Spread: 66%

·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
El Paso	$190K	$213K	+12.5%
El Paso	$192K	$195K	+1.5%
El Paso	$193K	$210K	+8.6%
El Paso	$187K	$194K	+3.4%
El Paso	$194K	$201K	+3.7%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
El Paso East	$241K	$286K	+18.6%
El Paso	$138K	$164K	+18.1%
El Paso	$212K	$250K	+18.0%
El Paso	$164K	$192K	+17.2%
El Paso	$113K	$131K	+16.2%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
El Paso	$79K	$84K	$38K
El Paso	$70K	$76K	$41K
El Paso East	$77K	$86K	$42K
El Paso East	$92K	$100K	$43K
El Paso East	$97K	$106K	$47K

Location

Homestead Meadows South on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).