What is the home price forecast for McKinney?

Homecastr forecasts McKinney median home values at $511,610 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 5.3%.

How confident is the McKinney forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $426,627 (downside) to $780,483 (upside), with a spread of 66% of median.

McKinney Home Price Forecast

Collin, TX · ZIP 75070 · Census Tract 48085030516 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$512K

Downside (P10)

$427K

-17% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$539K

+5% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$780K

+53% by 2030

Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +53%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Collin markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$196K	$223K	$244K	$275K	$318K	$346K	$370K	$409K	$466K	$499K	$501K	$512K	$527K	$546K	$539K
YoY Change		+13.8%	+9.7%	+12.7%	+15.4%	+9.0%	+6.7%	+10.6%	+14.0%	+7.2%	+0.4%	+2.1%	+3.0%	+3.7%	-1.3%
Downside (P10)												$439K	$439K	$442K	$427K
Upside (P90)												$576K	$621K	$720K	$780K

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$462K to $533K

14.0% of median

5-Year Spread

$427K to $780K

65.7% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +5.3% · Spread: 66%

·The forecast implies mild near-term softness followed by longer-term recovery.
·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Plano	$509K	$576K	+13.1%
Celina	$515K	$549K	+6.6%
Frisco	$516K	$558K	+8.2%
Plano	$507K	$569K	+12.2%
Plano	$517K	$555K	+7.3%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
McKinney	$473K	$580K	+22.6%
Plano	$454K	$542K	+19.4%
Dallas	$982K	$1.17M	+18.9%
Plano	$639K	$757K	+18.5%
Far North Dallas	$687K	$813K	+18.3%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Princeton	$170K	$185K	$108K
Plano	$298K	$334K	$134K
McKinney	$277K	$310K	$138K
McKinney	$318K	$347K	$152K
Princeton	$291K	$288K	$153K

Location

McKinney on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).