County 46686, SD · Census Tract 46686003621 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$458K
Downside (P10)
$487K
+6% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$635K
+39% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$828K
+81% by 2030
Base case: +39% by 2030, with a forecast range from +6% to +81%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 46686 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $458K | $496K | $523K | $605K | $635K |
| YoY Change | +8.3% | +5.4% | +15.5% | +5.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $413K | $415K | $471K | $487K | |
| Upside (P90) | $578K | $640K | $780K | $828K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$391K to $514K
27.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$487K to $828K
53.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 005247 | $459K | $822K | +78.9% |
| Tract 004280 | $455K | $804K | +76.7% |
| Tract 004824 | $462K | $838K | +81.4% |
| Tract 002787 | $465K | $605K | +30.0% |
| Tract 003388 | $450K | $596K | +32.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 004264 | $504K | $975K | +93.5% |
| Tract 004329 | $489K | $910K | +86.1% |
| Tract 005182 | $437K | $808K | +84.7% |
| Tract 004442 | $509K | $926K | +81.8% |
| Tract 005328 | $520K | $945K | +81.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 003582 | $404K | $529K | $243K |
| Tract 003346 | $380K | $483K | $249K |
| Tract 003045 | $397K | $484K | $256K |
| Tract 003566 | $421K | $536K | $260K |
| Tract 003304 | $431K | $547K | $287K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources