What is the home price forecast for Tract 400007?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 400007 median home values at $49,660 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 56.5%.

How confident is the Tract 400007 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $45,284 (downside) to $164,191 (upside), with a spread of 153% of median.

Tract 400007 Home Price Forecast

County 46120, SD · Census Tract 46120400007 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$50K

Downside (P10)

$45K

-9% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$78K

+57% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$164K

+231% by 2030

Base case: +57% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +231%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 46120 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$50K	$64K	$66K	$69K	$78K
YoY Change		+28.6%	+4.1%	+3.4%	+13.2%
Downside (P10)		$47K	$42K	$42K	$45K
Upside (P90)		$107K	$120K	$127K	$164K

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is very wide. The gap between upside and downside scenarios is unusually large — treat any single-point estimate with caution. This often reflects sparse local data or significant market volatility.

1-Year Spread

$41K to $74K

66.8% of median

5-Year Spread

$45K to $164K

153.0% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +56.5% · Spread: 153%

·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The wide range reflects limited transaction history or rapid neighborhood change — outcomes could vary significantly.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 360008	$53K	$77K	+46.9%
Tract 040001	$53K	$81K	+51.9%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 040001	$53K	$81K	+51.9%
Tract 360008	$53K	$77K	+46.9%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Tract 360008	$53K	$77K	$85K
Tract 040001	$53K	$81K	$112K

Location

Tract 400007 on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).