County 40803, OK · Census Tract 40803841002 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$657K
Downside (P10)
$318K
-52% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$619K
-6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.03M
+57% by 2030
Base case: -6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -52% to +57%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 40803 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $657K | $685K | $638K | $604K | $619K |
| YoY Change | +4.2% | -6.8% | -5.3% | +2.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $455K | $385K | $330K | $318K | |
| Upside (P90) | $956K | $1.0M | $995K | $1.0M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$524K to $879K
54.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$318K to $1.03M
115.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 800001 | $414K | $546K | +31.8% |
| Tract 520006 | $410K | $439K | +6.9% |
| Tract 680001 | $342K | $514K | +50.2% |
| Tract 360004 | $299K | $433K | +44.8% |
| Tract 160000 | $143K | $208K | +45.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680001 | $342K | $514K | +50.2% |
| Tract 840003 | $68K | $100K | +47.0% |
| Tract 160000 | $143K | $208K | +45.8% |
| Tract 360004 | $299K | $433K | +44.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 840003 | $68K | $100K | $99K |
| Tract 160000 | $143K | $208K | $167K |
| Tract 680001 | $342K | $514K | $303K |
| Tract 360004 | $299K | $433K | $351K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources