County 36615, NY · Census Tract 36615820005 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$826K
Downside (P10)
$349K
-58% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$716K
-13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.13M
+37% by 2030
Base case: -13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -58% to +37%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 36615 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $826K | $810K | $734K | $709K | $716K |
| YoY Change | -1.9% | -9.4% | -3.5% | +1.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $465K | $407K | $339K | $349K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$630K to $1.03M
48.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$349K to $1.13M
109.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 320000 | $773K | $725K | -6.2% |
| Tract 680009 | $768K | $714K | -7.0% |
| Tract 280001 | $725K | $699K | -3.7% |
| Tract 800009 | $953K | $784K | -17.8% |
| Tract 120006 | $689K | $633K | -8.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200007 | $1.37M | $1.39M | +1.1% |
| Tract 280001 | $725K | $699K | -3.7% |
| Tract 320000 | $773K | $725K | -6.2% |
| Tract 680009 | $768K | $714K | -7.0% |
| Tract 120006 | $689K | $633K | -8.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200007 | $1.37M | $1.39M | $737K |
| Tract 800009 | $953K | $784K | $766K |
| Tract 120006 | $689K | $633K | $792K |
| Tract 280001 | $725K | $699K | $846K |
| Tract 320000 | $773K | $725K | $953K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources