County 36004, NY · Census Tract 36004560002 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$446K
Downside (P10)
$416K
-7% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$614K
+38% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$915K
+105% by 2030
Base case: +38% by 2030, with a forecast range from -7% to +105%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 36004 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $446K | $499K | $522K | $561K | $614K |
| YoY Change | +11.9% | +4.7% | +7.4% | +9.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $393K | $389K | $396K | $416K | |
| Upside (P90) | $663K | $733K | $811K | $915K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$386K to $539K
34.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$416K to $915K
81.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 720004 | $462K | $595K | +28.9% |
| Tract 600001 | $420K | $609K | +45.0% |
| Tract 800005 | $502K | $631K | +25.6% |
| Tract 240005 | $508K | $667K | +31.2% |
| Tract 480001 | $530K | $708K | +33.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 600001 | $420K | $609K | +45.0% |
| Tract 480001 | $530K | $708K | +33.6% |
| Tract 240005 | $508K | $667K | +31.2% |
| Tract 720004 | $462K | $595K | +28.9% |
| Tract 800005 | $502K | $631K | +25.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 600001 | $420K | $609K | $535K |
| Tract 720004 | $462K | $595K | $543K |
| Tract 480001 | $530K | $708K | $622K |
| Tract 800005 | $502K | $631K | $659K |
| Tract 240005 | $508K | $667K | $662K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources