County 32420, NV · Census Tract 32420004861 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$376K
Downside (P10)
$280K
-26% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$465K
+23% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$755K
+100% by 2030
Base case: +23% by 2030, with a forecast range from -26% to +100%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 32420 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $376K | $410K | $423K | $446K | $465K |
| YoY Change | +9.0% | +3.0% | +5.5% | +4.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $309K | $277K | $276K | $280K | |
| Upside (P90) | $542K | $615K | $677K | $755K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$316K to $450K
35.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$280K to $755K
102.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 003781 | $376K | $486K | +29.1% |
| Tract 008126 | $377K | $513K | +36.1% |
| Tract 008320 | $376K | $487K | +29.6% |
| Tract 009206 | $378K | $447K | +18.4% |
| Tract 003749 | $379K | $491K | +29.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 003121 | $383K | $535K | +39.9% |
| Tract 000409 | $395K | $547K | +38.6% |
| Tract 005682 | $388K | $530K | +36.3% |
| Tract 008126 | $377K | $513K | +36.1% |
| Tract 003325 | $387K | $515K | +33.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 009743 | $381K | $418K | $381K |
| Tract 007525 | $381K | $464K | $383K |
| Tract 009400 | $401K | $462K | $403K |
| Tract 006924 | $391K | $470K | $408K |
| Tract 001466 | $388K | $468K | $414K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources