County 35580, NM · Census Tract 35580000427 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$649K
Downside (P10)
$332K
-49% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$634K
-2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.21M
+87% by 2030
Base case: -2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -49% to +87%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 35580 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $649K | $710K | $659K | $630K | $634K |
| YoY Change | +9.4% | -7.2% | -4.3% | +0.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $451K | $380K | $351K | $332K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$486K to $874K
59.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$332K to $1.21M
138.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000320 | $663K | $551K | -17.0% |
| Tract 000281 | $738K | $595K | -19.4% |
| Tract 001882 | $537K | $588K | +9.4% |
| Tract 000566 | $775K | $680K | -12.3% |
| Tract 000825 | $800K | $752K | -6.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000126 | $178K | $228K | +28.7% |
| Tract 000508 | $245K | $307K | +25.2% |
| Tract 000647 | $415K | $515K | +24.1% |
| Tract 000362 | $232K | $280K | +20.3% |
| Tract 001060 | $451K | $542K | +20.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000126 | $178K | $228K | $412K |
| Tract 000362 | $232K | $280K | $482K |
| Tract 000508 | $245K | $307K | $575K |
| Tract 001400 | $474K | $481K | $687K |
| Tract 000566 | $775K | $680K | $757K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources