County 35576, NM · Census Tract 35576900586 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.37M
Downside (P10)
$512K
-63% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.12M
-18% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.92M
+40% by 2030
Base case: -18% by 2030, with a forecast range from -63% to +40%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 35576 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| YoY Change | -2.1% | -12.1% | -7.6% | +3.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $761K | $590K | $492K | $512K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.9M | $1.8M | $1.8M | $1.9M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$856K to $1.80M
68.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$512K to $1.92M
125.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 900625 | $1.37M | $986K | -27.9% |
| Tract 900162 | $1.35M | $1.03M | -24.1% |
| Tract 900421 | $1.41M | $1.01M | -28.6% |
| Tract 900405 | $1.45M | $1.13M | -22.0% |
| Tract 900489 | $1.65M | $1.30M | -21.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 900489 | $1.65M | $1.30M | -21.0% |
| Tract 900405 | $1.45M | $1.13M | -22.0% |
| Tract 900162 | $1.35M | $1.03M | -24.1% |
| Tract 900625 | $1.37M | $986K | -27.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 900625 | $1.37M | $986K | $955K |
| Tract 900421 | $1.41M | $1.01M | $1.03M |
| Tract 900162 | $1.35M | $1.03M | $1.14M |
| Tract 900405 | $1.45M | $1.13M | $1.35M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources