County 38281, ND · Census Tract 38281841005 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$911K
Downside (P10)
$363K
-60% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$771K
-15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.30M
+43% by 2030
Base case: -15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -60% to +43%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 38281 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $911K | $938K | $815K | $758K | $771K |
| YoY Change | +3.0% | -13.2% | -6.9% | +1.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $573K | $421K | $366K | $363K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.3M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$668K to $1.18M
56.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$363K to $1.30M
122.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 320005 | $912K | $786K | -13.8% |
| Tract 800004 | $1.00M | $894K | -10.8% |
| Tract 360007 | $1.02M | $943K | -7.6% |
| Tract 810007 | $1.09M | $1.58M | +45.1% |
| Tract 600000 | $1.13M | $860K | -24.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 810007 | $1.09M | $1.58M | +45.1% |
| Tract 520009 | $547K | $644K | +17.7% |
| Tract 360007 | $1.02M | $943K | -7.6% |
| Tract 800004 | $1.00M | $894K | -10.8% |
| Tract 320005 | $912K | $786K | -13.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 180009 | $1.88M | $1.60M | $571K |
| Tract 520009 | $547K | $644K | $850K |
| Tract 320005 | $912K | $786K | $939K |
| Tract 600000 | $1.13M | $860K | $995K |
| Tract 800004 | $1.00M | $894K | $1.07M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources