What is the home price forecast for Tract 000008?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 000008 median home values at $633,636 currently, with a 5-year expected change of -4.6%.

How confident is the Tract 000008 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $222,777 (downside) to $1,143,710 (upside), with a spread of 152% of median.

Tract 000008 Home Price Forecast

County 28534, MS · Census Tract 28534000008 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$634K

Downside (P10)

$223K

-65% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$604K

-5% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$1.14M

+80% by 2030

Base case: -5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -65% to +80%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 28534 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$634K	$657K	$610K	$588K	$604K
YoY Change		+3.6%	-7.1%	-3.7%	+2.8%
Downside (P10)		$355K	$260K	$220K	$223K
Upside (P90)		$937K	$957K	$1.1M	$1.1M

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is very wide. The gap between upside and downside scenarios is unusually large — treat any single-point estimate with caution. This often reflects sparse local data or significant market volatility.

1-Year Spread

$480K to $854K

59.0% of median

5-Year Spread

$223K to $1.14M

152.4% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: mild decline expected5yr expected: -4.6% · Spread: 152%

·The forecast implies relatively stable values through the full horizon, with modest movements in either direction.
·The model sees some downside pressure from rate sensitivity and local supply dynamics.
·The wide range reflects limited transaction history or rapid neighborhood change — outcomes could vary significantly.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 680004	$720K	$721K	+0.2%
Tract 480000	$546K	$604K	+10.7%
Tract 920007	$736K	$755K	+2.6%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 480000	$546K	$604K	+10.7%
Tract 920007	$736K	$755K	+2.6%
Tract 680004	$720K	$721K	+0.2%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Tract 920007	$736K	$755K	$739K
Tract 480000	$546K	$604K	$756K
Tract 680004	$720K	$721K	$1.07M

Location

Tract 000008 on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).