County 24200, MD · Census Tract 24200004604 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$462K
Downside (P10)
$492K
+7% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$638K
+38% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$847K
+84% by 2030
Base case: +38% by 2030, with a forecast range from +7% to +84%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 24200 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $462K | $530K | $559K | $585K | $638K |
| YoY Change | +14.8% | +5.5% | +4.6% | +9.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $442K | $446K | $464K | $492K | |
| Upside (P90) | $641K | $712K | $783K | $847K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$408K to $544K
29.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$492K to $847K
55.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000145 | $462K | $498K | +7.7% |
| Tract 003362 | $459K | $721K | +57.1% |
| Tract 000488 | $458K | $514K | +12.2% |
| Tract 001924 | $455K | $530K | +16.3% |
| Tract 004248 | $473K | $651K | +37.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 402167 | $1.07M | $1.67M | +57.1% |
| Tract 003362 | $459K | $721K | +57.1% |
| Tract 402442 | $696K | $1.09M | +56.4% |
| Tract 402028 | $1.04M | $1.57M | +51.1% |
| Tract 402426 | $741K | $1.10M | +49.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001021 | $359K | $483K | $391K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources