County 24534, MD · Census Tract 24534640006 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.33M
Downside (P10)
$1.18M
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.60M
+20% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.05M
+54% by 2030
Base case: +20% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +54%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 24534 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.6M |
| YoY Change | +4.5% | +3.5% | +7.3% | +3.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.6M | $1.9M | $2.0M | $2.1M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.22M to $1.48M
19.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.18M to $2.05M
54.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 960003 | $1.31M | $1.29M | -2.0% |
| Tract 080006 | $752K | $760K | +1.0% |
| Tract 320009 | $684K | $781K | +14.3% |
| Tract 820004 | $681K | $676K | -0.6% |
| Tract 200006 | $613K | $638K | +4.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 120005 | $532K | $630K | +18.4% |
| Tract 320009 | $684K | $781K | +14.3% |
| Tract 200006 | $613K | $638K | +4.2% |
| Tract 080006 | $752K | $760K | +1.0% |
| Tract 820004 | $681K | $676K | -0.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 120005 | $532K | $630K | $728K |
| Tract 200006 | $613K | $638K | $750K |
| Tract 320009 | $684K | $781K | $815K |
| Tract 820004 | $681K | $676K | $828K |
| Tract 080006 | $752K | $760K | $1.12M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources