What is the home price forecast for Tract 900301?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 900301 median home values at $430,487 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 18.5%.

How confident is the Tract 900301 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $315,869 (downside) to $774,436 (upside), with a spread of 90% of median.

Tract 900301 Home Price Forecast

County 24500, MD · Census Tract 24500900301 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$430K

Downside (P10)

$316K

-27% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$510K

+18% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$774K

+80% by 2030

Base case: +18% by 2030, with a forecast range from -27% to +80%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 24500 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$430K	$476K	$489K	$484K	$510K
YoY Change		+10.6%	+2.6%	-0.9%	+5.3%
Downside (P10)		$356K	$340K	$320K	$316K
Upside (P90)		$630K	$683K	$690K	$774K

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$378K to $526K

34.4% of median

5-Year Spread

$316K to $774K

89.9% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +18.5% · Spread: 90%

·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 900385	$421K	$537K	+27.6%
Tract 900408	$409K	$559K	+36.6%
Tract 900343	$407K	$507K	+24.7%
Tract 900505	$403K	$581K	+44.2%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 900505	$403K	$581K	+44.2%
Tract 900408	$409K	$559K	+36.6%
Tract 900385	$421K	$537K	+27.6%
Tract 900343	$407K	$507K	+24.7%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Tract 900343	$407K	$507K	$499K

Location

Tract 900301 on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).