County 24220, MD · Census Tract 24220001506 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$271K
Downside (P10)
$262K
-3% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$373K
+38% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$530K
+96% by 2030
Base case: +38% by 2030, with a forecast range from -3% to +96%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 24220 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $271K | $311K | $318K | $334K | $373K |
| YoY Change | +14.7% | +2.3% | +5.1% | +11.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $244K | $239K | $244K | $262K | |
| Upside (P90) | $385K | $417K | $467K | $530K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$237K to $320K
30.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$262K to $530K
71.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000824 | $271K | $384K | +41.6% |
| Tract 000866 | $270K | $371K | +37.3% |
| Tract 001807 | $272K | $362K | +33.2% |
| Tract 000426 | $272K | $370K | +36.2% |
| Tract 000303 | $273K | $361K | +32.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001726 | $262K | $399K | +52.2% |
| Tract 000769 | $279K | $409K | +46.2% |
| Tract 000581 | $280K | $408K | +45.8% |
| Tract 001661 | $287K | $416K | +45.2% |
| Tract 001467 | $293K | $425K | +45.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001807 | $272K | $362K | $243K |
| Tract 000426 | $272K | $370K | $268K |
| Tract 000303 | $273K | $361K | $268K |
| Tract 000866 | $270K | $371K | $276K |
| Tract 001784 | $266K | $364K | $278K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources