County 24200, MD · Census Tract 24200111306 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$568K
Downside (P10)
$310K
-45% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$538K
-5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$979K
+72% by 2030
Base case: -5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -45% to +72%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 24200 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $568K | $584K | $538K | $513K | $538K |
| YoY Change | +2.8% | -7.9% | -4.7% | +5.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $411K | $314K | $319K | $310K | |
| Upside (P90) | $871K | $855K | $913K | $979K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$457K to $742K
50.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$310K to $979K
124.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 110242 | $567K | $575K | +1.4% |
| Tract 100249 | $571K | $583K | +2.1% |
| Tract 111322 | $571K | $518K | -9.3% |
| Tract 100540 | $575K | $536K | -6.8% |
| Tract 110404 | $560K | $534K | -4.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 402167 | $1.07M | $1.67M | +57.1% |
| Tract 003362 | $459K | $721K | +57.1% |
| Tract 402442 | $696K | $1.09M | +56.4% |
| Tract 402028 | $1.04M | $1.57M | +51.1% |
| Tract 402426 | $741K | $1.10M | +49.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 004604 | $462K | $638K | $355K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources