County 24171, MD · Census Tract 24171000465 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.47M
Downside (P10)
$1.18M
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.66M
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.42M
+65% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +65%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 24171 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.7M |
| YoY Change | +8.6% | -0.8% | +1.1% | +3.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.2M | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.9M | $2.0M | $2.2M | $2.4M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.32M to $1.65M
22.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.18M to $2.42M
74.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000164 | $1.42M | $1.54M | +8.5% |
| Tract 000300 | $1.34M | $1.46M | +8.6% |
| Tract 000229 | $1.34M | $1.46M | +9.1% |
| Tract 001121 | $1.32M | $1.54M | +16.2% |
| Tract 000106 | $1.27M | $1.49M | +16.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001082 | $1.08M | $1.33M | +22.6% |
| Tract 001008 | $1.08M | $1.28M | +19.2% |
| Tract 000106 | $1.27M | $1.49M | +16.8% |
| Tract 001121 | $1.32M | $1.54M | +16.2% |
| Tract 000766 | $1.05M | $1.21M | +15.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000546 | $1.25M | $1.39M | $822K |
| Tract 000229 | $1.34M | $1.46M | $924K |
| Tract 000766 | $1.05M | $1.21M | $927K |
| Tract 001008 | $1.08M | $1.28M | $960K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources