County 24160, MD · Census Tract 24160001543 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$536K
Downside (P10)
$445K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$896K
+67% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.94M
+261% by 2030
Base case: +67% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +261%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 24160 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $536K | $685K | $737K | $799K | $896K |
| YoY Change | +27.8% | +7.7% | +8.4% | +12.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $473K | $436K | $418K | $445K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.5M | $1.7M | $1.9M |
The forecast range is very wide. The gap between upside and downside scenarios is unusually large — treat any single-point estimate with caution. This often reflects sparse local data or significant market volatility.
1-Year Spread
$419K to $877K
85.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$445K to $1.94M
166.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 002322 | $535K | $808K | +51.1% |
| Tract 000227 | $532K | $655K | +23.2% |
| Tract 001705 | $548K | $995K | +81.7% |
| Tract 001682 | $520K | $849K | +63.2% |
| Tract 002429 | $552K | $897K | +62.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001705 | $548K | $995K | +81.7% |
| Tract 002144 | $587K | $968K | +65.1% |
| Tract 001967 | $624K | $1.02M | +63.8% |
| Tract 001682 | $520K | $849K | +63.2% |
| Tract 002429 | $552K | $897K | +62.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000667 | $477K | $488K | $608K |
| Tract 000528 | $456K | $475K | $633K |
| Tract 000366 | $456K | $532K | $643K |
| Tract 000120 | $474K | $494K | $647K |
| Tract 000049 | $469K | $522K | $674K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources