County 22440, LA · Census Tract 22440000143 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$770K
Downside (P10)
$328K
-57% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$643K
-17% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.23M
+60% by 2030
Base case: -17% by 2030, with a forecast range from -57% to +60%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 22440 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $770K | $763K | $683K | $641K | $643K |
| YoY Change | -1.0% | -10.4% | -6.1% | +0.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $413K | $349K | $306K | $328K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$560K to $1.03M
60.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$328K to $1.23M
140.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000606 | $833K | $726K | -12.9% |
| Tract 000541 | $859K | $758K | -11.7% |
| Tract 000020 | $871K | $720K | -17.3% |
| Tract 000101 | $899K | $708K | -21.3% |
| Tract 000266 | $942K | $679K | -27.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000826 | $1.07M | $972K | -9.1% |
| Tract 000185 | $978K | $864K | -11.7% |
| Tract 000541 | $859K | $758K | -11.7% |
| Tract 000606 | $833K | $726K | -12.9% |
| Tract 000020 | $871K | $720K | -17.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000266 | $942K | $679K | $870K |
| Tract 000101 | $899K | $708K | $890K |
| Tract 000020 | $871K | $720K | $921K |
| Tract 000541 | $859K | $758K | $936K |
| Tract 000606 | $833K | $726K | $973K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources