County 22900, LA · Census Tract 22900007204 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.30M
Downside (P10)
$461K
-65% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$978K
-25% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.64M
+26% by 2030
Base case: -25% by 2030, with a forecast range from -65% to +26%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 22900 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.1M | $1.0M | $978K |
| YoY Change | -0.7% | -12.5% | -11.2% | -2.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $793K | $592K | $503K | $461K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.6M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$909K to $1.54M
48.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$461K to $1.64M
120.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 007709 | $1.30M | $1.03M | -20.8% |
| Tract 007628 | $1.25M | $927K | -26.1% |
| Tract 007864 | $1.35M | $1.08M | -19.9% |
| Tract 004427 | $1.36M | $950K | -29.9% |
| Tract 002089 | $1.22M | $895K | -26.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 007068 | $1.07M | $916K | -14.7% |
| Tract 001420 | $2.27M | $1.90M | -16.3% |
| Tract 001624 | $2.04M | $1.66M | -18.6% |
| Tract 007864 | $1.35M | $1.08M | -19.9% |
| Tract 004168 | $1.13M | $909K | -19.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 004168 | $1.13M | $909K | $880K |
| Tract 003949 | $1.09M | $868K | $916K |
| Tract 002063 | $1.21M | $918K | $936K |
| Tract 000340 | $1.87M | $1.46M | $943K |
| Tract 003185 | $2.20M | $1.67M | $946K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources