County 22296, LA · Census Tract 22296000944 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$3.92M
Downside (P10)
$2.44M
-38% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.86M
-27% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$3.15M
-20% by 2030
Base case: -27% by 2030, with a forecast range from -38% to -20%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 22296 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $3.9M | $4.0M | $3.4M | $2.9M | $2.9M |
| YoY Change | +1.4% | -13.4% | -15.7% | -1.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $3.6M | $2.9M | $2.5M | $2.4M | |
| Upside (P90) | $4.3M | $3.8M | $3.2M | $3.2M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$3.62M to $4.13M
12.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$2.44M to $3.15M
24.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001451 | $3.29M | $3.04M | -7.6% |
| Tract 001464 | $3.10M | $3.07M | -1.0% |
| Tract 000627 | $2.96M | $2.32M | -21.5% |
| Tract 001419 | $2.95M | $2.87M | -2.6% |
| Tract 000481 | $2.84M | $2.27M | -19.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001985 | $202K | $292K | +44.6% |
| Tract 001707 | $171K | $244K | +42.6% |
| Tract 001545 | $172K | $244K | +42.1% |
| Tract 001901 | $201K | $285K | +42.1% |
| Tract 001846 | $208K | $295K | +41.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001561 | $183K | $246K | $246K |
| Tract 001901 | $201K | $285K | $260K |
| Tract 001545 | $172K | $244K | $269K |
| Tract 001707 | $171K | $244K | $271K |
| Tract 001846 | $208K | $295K | $279K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources