County 22510, LA · Census Tract 22510004451 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.67M
Downside (P10)
$759K
-55% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.26M
-25% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.86M
+11% by 2030
Base case: -25% by 2030, with a forecast range from -55% to +11%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 22510 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.5M | $1.3M | $1.3M |
| YoY Change | -0.7% | -10.4% | -11.8% | -3.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.1M | $862K | $798K | $759K | |
| Upside (P90) | $2.1M | $2.0M | $1.9M | $1.9M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.31M to $1.99M
40.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$759K to $1.86M
87.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 300126 | $1.65M | $1.28M | -22.2% |
| Tract 300566 | $1.70M | $1.20M | -29.8% |
| Tract 300087 | $1.76M | $1.32M | -25.2% |
| Tract 011907 | $1.58M | $1.41M | -11.2% |
| Tract 012252 | $1.57M | $1.37M | -12.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 007254 | $3.26M | $3.14M | -3.6% |
| Tract 011855 | $1.44M | $1.34M | -6.7% |
| Tract 011907 | $1.58M | $1.41M | -11.2% |
| Tract 004354 | $1.41M | $1.25M | -11.6% |
| Tract 300388 | $2.24M | $1.98M | -11.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 008606 | $3.18M | $2.52M | $538K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources