County 21845, KY · Census Tract 21845002161 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$548K
Downside (P10)
$274K
-50% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$567K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.07M
+96% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -50% to +96%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 21845 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $548K | $572K | $559K | $546K | $567K |
| YoY Change | +4.4% | -2.3% | -2.3% | +3.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $357K | $297K | $276K | $274K | |
| Upside (P90) | $803K | $912K | $953K | $1.1M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$424K to $714K
52.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$274K to $1.07M
141.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000383 | $548K | $642K | +17.0% |
| Tract 001609 | $549K | $645K | +17.4% |
| Tract 002022 | $550K | $596K | +8.4% |
| Tract 002129 | $551K | $589K | +7.0% |
| Tract 002145 | $538K | $581K | +8.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001942 | $533K | $633K | +18.7% |
| Tract 001609 | $549K | $645K | +17.4% |
| Tract 000383 | $548K | $642K | +17.0% |
| Tract 001285 | $673K | $775K | +15.3% |
| Tract 001463 | $581K | $656K | +12.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000341 | $563K | $614K | $603K |
| Tract 002006 | $587K | $615K | $622K |
| Tract 000367 | $575K | $592K | $635K |
| Tract 000383 | $548K | $642K | $639K |
| Tract 001845 | $593K | $583K | $668K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources