County 21845, KY · Census Tract 21845001007 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$629K
Downside (P10)
$282K
-55% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$604K
-4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.21M
+92% by 2030
Base case: -4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -55% to +92%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 21845 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $629K | $656K | $617K | $600K | $604K |
| YoY Change | +4.3% | -5.9% | -2.7% | +0.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $399K | $307K | $282K | $282K | |
| Upside (P90) | $952K | $991K | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is very wide. The gap between upside and downside scenarios is unusually large — treat any single-point estimate with caution. This often reflects sparse local data or significant market volatility.
1-Year Spread
$495K to $860K
58.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$282K to $1.21M
153.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000325 | $620K | $696K | +12.1% |
| Tract 001722 | $620K | $665K | +7.4% |
| Tract 002284 | $609K | $621K | +2.0% |
| Tract 000464 | $608K | $660K | +8.6% |
| Tract 000105 | $655K | $663K | +1.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001942 | $533K | $633K | +18.7% |
| Tract 001609 | $549K | $645K | +17.4% |
| Tract 000383 | $548K | $642K | +17.0% |
| Tract 001285 | $673K | $775K | +15.3% |
| Tract 001463 | $581K | $656K | +12.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000341 | $563K | $614K | $603K |
| Tract 002006 | $587K | $615K | $622K |
| Tract 000367 | $575K | $592K | $635K |
| Tract 000383 | $548K | $642K | $639K |
| Tract 001845 | $593K | $583K | $668K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources