County 20997, KS · Census Tract 20997501281 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.51M
Downside (P10)
$604K
-60% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.05M
-30% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.58M
+5% by 2030
Base case: -30% by 2030, with a forecast range from -60% to +5%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 20997 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.3M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| YoY Change | -3.8% | -13.4% | -12.4% | -4.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $855K | $677K | $610K | $604K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.8M | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.6M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.08M to $1.99M
60.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$604K to $1.58M
92.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 500907 | $1.52M | $1.10M | -27.8% |
| Tract 500981 | $1.54M | $1.12M | -26.9% |
| Tract 500486 | $1.47M | $981K | -33.4% |
| Tract 500020 | $1.47M | $1.04M | -28.8% |
| Tract 501540 | $1.56M | $1.04M | -33.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 500703 | $1.44M | $1.17M | -19.1% |
| Tract 500127 | $1.58M | $1.21M | -23.4% |
| Tract 502581 | $1.82M | $1.36M | -25.1% |
| Tract 501825 | $1.62M | $1.20M | -25.9% |
| Tract 502549 | $1.71M | $1.27M | -26.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 500208 | $1.26M | $807K | $911K |
| Tract 502581 | $1.82M | $1.36M | $920K |
| Tract 500486 | $1.47M | $981K | $947K |
| Tract 501621 | $1.59M | $1.11M | $956K |
| Tract 502549 | $1.71M | $1.27M | $978K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources