County 20853, KS · Census Tract 20853750561 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$2.10M
Downside (P10)
$953K
-55% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.43M
-32% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.89M
-10% by 2030
Base case: -32% by 2030, with a forecast range from -55% to -10%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 20853 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $2.1M | $2.0M | $1.7M | $1.5M | $1.4M |
| YoY Change | -2.9% | -15.1% | -13.4% | -4.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.4M | $1.2M | $961K | $953K | |
| Upside (P90) | $2.4M | $2.2M | $1.9M | $1.9M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.66M to $2.36M
33.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$953K to $1.89M
65.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 750464 | $2.18M | $1.50M | -31.2% |
| Tract 750480 | $1.97M | $1.51M | -23.4% |
| Tract 750325 | $1.97M | $1.37M | -30.4% |
| Tract 750147 | $1.90M | $1.41M | -25.8% |
| Tract 750163 | $1.65M | $1.24M | -24.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 750480 | $1.97M | $1.51M | -23.4% |
| Tract 750260 | $1.59M | $1.20M | -24.5% |
| Tract 750163 | $1.65M | $1.24M | -24.8% |
| Tract 750147 | $1.90M | $1.41M | -25.8% |
| Tract 750325 | $1.97M | $1.37M | -30.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 750260 | $1.59M | $1.20M | $952K |
| Tract 750163 | $1.65M | $1.24M | $972K |
| Tract 750480 | $1.97M | $1.51M | $1.03M |
| Tract 750147 | $1.90M | $1.41M | $1.06M |
| Tract 750464 | $2.18M | $1.50M | $1.14M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources