County 20211, KS · Census Tract 20211400000 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$862K
Downside (P10)
$344K
-60% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$702K
-19% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.36M
+58% by 2030
Base case: -19% by 2030, with a forecast range from -60% to +58%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 20211 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $862K | $863K | $765K | $687K | $702K |
| YoY Change | +0.1% | -11.3% | -10.2% | +2.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $529K | $377K | $332K | $344K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.4M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$598K to $1.13M
61.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$344K to $1.36M
144.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 560005 | $856K | $742K | -13.3% |
| Tract 360001 | $886K | $758K | -14.4% |
| Tract 000002 | $832K | $681K | -18.2% |
| Tract 240008 | $584K | $629K | +7.6% |
| Tract 720007 | $574K | $592K | +3.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 240008 | $584K | $629K | +7.6% |
| Tract 720007 | $574K | $592K | +3.1% |
| Tract 560005 | $856K | $742K | -13.3% |
| Tract 360001 | $886K | $758K | -14.4% |
| Tract 000002 | $832K | $681K | -18.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 720007 | $574K | $592K | $816K |
| Tract 240008 | $584K | $629K | $818K |
| Tract 000002 | $832K | $681K | $922K |
| Tract 360001 | $886K | $758K | $987K |
| Tract 560005 | $856K | $742K | $1.14M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources